Learning Center
We keep you up to date on the latest tax changes and news in the industry.

2026 Tax Update: Analyzing the Impact of the OBBBA on Refunds and Deductions

As we navigate the opening weeks of the 2026 tax filing season, preliminary data from the IRS offers a revealing look at the current financial landscape. Early statistics show a distinct upward trend in the average refund amount, which has risen to $2,476 from $2,169 at this time last year. While this 14.2% increase is statistically significant, it currently trails the $1,000 boost that many policymakers had projected.

However, forensic analysis of early tax data requires context. The filing season is young, and averages often shift as more complex returns are processed. The current data points to the tangible impact of the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), a legislative overhaul introducing specific provisions that taxpayers in Burlingame and across California are now seeing applied to their returns.

Global business analysis

Key Legislative Changes Influencing 2026 Returns

The OBBBA introduced a series of deductions and credits designed to lower tax liability. For our clients, understanding the specific phase-out thresholds is critical to effective planning.

  • Increased SALT Limit: Of particular interest to our California clients is the adjustment to the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction. The limit has quadrupled from $10,000 to $40,000 ($20,000 for married filing separately). However, high-net-worth individuals must note that for Modified Adjusted Gross Income (MAGI) over $500,000, this cap begins to phase down, potentially reverting to the previous $10,000 limit for top earners.

  • Auto Loan Interest Deduction: Interest on loans for new, U.S.-assembled vehicles purchased for personal use after 2024 is now deductible up to $10,000. This applies whether you itemize or take the standard deduction. The benefit phases out beginning at a MAGI of $100,000 ($200,000 for joint filers) and is eliminated entirely at $150,000 ($250,000 joint).

  • Enhanced Standard and Senior Deductions: The standard deduction has been adjusted to $31,500 for married couples filing jointly and $15,750 for single filers. Additionally, a "Senior Bonus" of $6,000 is available for taxpayers aged 65 and older. This bonus begins to phase out at a MAGI of $75,000 ($150,000 joint).

  • Expanded Child Tax Credit: The credit has increased to $2,200 per child. Consistent with other provisions, this benefit is subject to income thresholds, remaining fully available to joint filers with income up to $400,000.

  • Targeted Workforce Deductions: The act includes specific deductions for overtime premium pay (capped at $12,500 for singles) and qualified tips (up to $25,000). These also carry phase-out limits beginning at $150,000 MAGI ($300,000 joint).

Schedule Your Estate & Gift Consultation
Our team specializes in estate, gift, valuation, and forensic accounting matters. Book a confidential consultation to discuss your needs and get clear, actionable strategies.
Book a Consultation

Reviewing financial documents

Additional Factors Affecting Refunds

Beyond the OBBBA, several technical factors are influencing the refund numbers we are seeing:

  • Withholding Discrepancies: Many tax cuts were enacted retroactively or mid-year without immediate updates to IRS withholding tables. This resulted in many taxpayers having more tax withheld from their paychecks than necessary, effectively forcing a larger refund at filing time.

  • Inflation Adjustments: Tax brackets and standard provisions have been indexed for inflation, which helps prevent "bracket creep" and can reduce overall effective tax rates.

  • Refundable Adoption Credit: A portion of the Adoption Tax Credit (up to $5,000) is now refundable, meaning it can result in a payout even if the taxpayer has zero tax liability.

Navigating IRS Challenges

The 2026 filing season is also a stress test for the IRS infrastructure. The agency is contending with a workforce reduction and a lingering backlog of returns. Current reports indicate a decrease in both returns received and processed compared to prior years.

At Sullivan & Company CPA Inc., our philosophy is to deliver clarity, not jargon. We understand that new legislation combined with administrative delays at the IRS can create uncertainty. Our team is fully versed in the nuances of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, from the expanded SALT caps to the forensic details of deduction phase-outs. We are dedicated to ensuring your return is not only compliant but strategically optimized to preserve your wealth. If you have questions about how these changes affect your specific financial picture, please contact us to review your strategy.

Schedule Your Estate & Gift Consultation
Our team specializes in estate, gift, valuation, and forensic accounting matters. Book a confidential consultation to discuss your needs and get clear, actionable strategies.
Book a Consultation
Share this article...

Want tax & accounting tips and insights?

Sign up for our newsletter.

I confirm this is a service inquiry and not an advertising message or solicitation. By clicking “Submit”, I acknowledge and agree to the creation of an account and to the and .